Toomey for Senate

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Republican Pat Toomey continues to hold a modest lead over his Democratic Challenger, Joe Sestak, in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Toomey earning 45% of the vote, while Sestak earns 39% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are not sure.

In surveys dating back to early February, support for Toomey has ranged from a low of 42% to a high of 47%. In those same surveys, aside from a brief surge in support following his mid-May primary victory over incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak's support has fallen in a narrow 36% to 40% range.

Earlier this month, Toomey led Sestak 46% to 37%.

When leaners are included in the totals, Toomey's advantage over Sestak remains at six points, 48% - 42%. This is now the second Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Pennsylvania to include leaners. Earlier this month, Toomey earned 48% support to Sestak's 40% when leaners were included.

Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

Early in any campaign, the number without leaners is generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matters more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the number with leaners as the primary indicator of the campaign.

This race remains Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on August 30, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

More information from this survey will be released later this week at RasmussenReports.com/Pennsylvania.
Toomey is favored by 77% of Republicans, while 68% of Democrats support Sestak. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Toomey leads Sestak by a 42% to 27% margin.

Consistent with statewide surveys conducted across the country, 46% of Pennsylvania voters rate economic issues as the most important issue come November. Far behind are domestic issues, such as social security and health care, and fiscal issues at 16%. Twelve percent (12%) say national security issues take precedent this election.