Toomey for Senate

I've said several times in the past that Sen. Arlen Specter gets defeated in 2010, but that I don't know whether he'll go down in the Democratic primary or in the general election.

Franklin & Marshall has new poll numbers out this morning, showing an odd divide between likely voters and registered voters. Among likely voters, Republican Pat Toomey leads by 10 over Specter; among registered voters, Specter leads by 4.

Specter leads Sestak in the primary, 33 percent to 16 percent.

Among likely voters, Toomey leads 38 percent to Sestak's 20 percent; among registered voters, Toomey only leads 25 percent to 22 percent.

Obviously, these totals include a lot of undecided voters.