Toomey for Senate

By Laura Vecsey
May 15, 2010, 11:12PM

When Pat Toomey announced last April that he would challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in the GOP primary, Republican Party officials shuddered in fear and wondered how to get former Gov. Tom Ridge into the race.

Republicans thought they needed a moderate candidate who could attract independent voters and a few conservative Democrats to compete in the Barack Obama world of national politics.

The old-guard, entrenched Republicans in Washington, like Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, called Toomey unelectable.

National Republican Senatorial Campaign Chairman Sen. John Cornyn withheld hugs, kisses and campaign contributions, figuring the ultra-conservative Toomey would not resonate with an electorate that had already showed its true colors.

This was before the tea party movement had reached critical mass.

This was before the Republican Party grasped that not only were shrink-government conservatives ready for war against Democrats, they were determined to get rid of their own profligate spenders and self-serving incumbents.

That was then.

This is now: Just before Tuesday’s primaries, and despite national headlines painting this Pennsylvania Senate race as a referendum on Specter and his fight to stave off Democratic primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak, an analysis of Toomey is not quite so simple.

As the clarion caller for free-market economics and big government shrinkage, Toomey may be overshadowed by the Specter spectacle. The entire narrative about this race has been built on Specter’s thesis that he wasn’t going to let right-wing ideologues have the final determination on whether or not he got to keep his job.

However, the broader view would place almost as much emphasis on Toomey, a candidate who embodies the polarized fight over the future direction of this country and whose viability for election is due to voter distrust and disgust.

"[The Senate race] is not a referendum on Arlen Specter. It’s on what he stands for," said Mike Connolly, a spokesman for Club For Growth, the conservative political action committee Toomey founded after leaving Congress after three terms.

"In his case, [Specter] says ‘experience.’ But experience equals connections and bringing home a lot of bacon," Connolly said.

But he said that much of the bacon produced by Specter and others in Congress is "not only wasteful, but an embarrassment."

"They go to Washington seeking how to get their slice of the pie. Multiply that by 435 members of Congress and that’s how you come up with a $14 trillion deficit," he said.
If it’s any indication that Specter had no choice to switch parties, even if it means losing his seat as a Democrat, the ouster of U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett in Utah said it all. At last weekend’s Utah state convention, the 18-year incumbent conservative Republican was denied a spot on the GOP primary ballot.

"The atmosphere is toxic," Bennett said.

Toxic for incumbents, even Republicans.

"There’s a little misconception about anti-incumbent and partisanship. The American people are in an anti-incumbent mood but only for those who used their office to increase their own power," Connolly said.

What Toomey could not do in the 2004 Republican primary, thanks in part to Specter endorsements from George W. Bush and Rick Santorum, Toomey can more certainly do now.
The political climate that favors Toomey is another reason Pennsylvania Democrats are concerned that the costly and bitter battle between Specter and Sestak leaves either one weaker against Toomey, even as Democrats prepare to attack Toomey as a free-market ideologue who is making like a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

The former Wall Street derivatives trader and Lehigh Valley congressman and restaurant owner has favorable poll numbers, massive fundraising dollars and a populist movement in the tea party that mirrors his own, long-held beliefs on the limited role of government.

"A lot has changed since Specter made the [party] switch," said Mike Barley, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Republican Party. "The dynamics are much different all across the country as the big-government agenda and the massive spending play themselves out."

"If you look at Pat Toomey, not only is he a strong candidate and fundraiser, you look at the numbers of Pennsylvanians frustrated with the climate in D.C.," Barley said.
Toomey faces conservative Peg Luksik in the GOP primary, but poll numbers shows Toomey winning easily.

After that, the showdown will be with either Specter or Sestak. Toomey will face a five-term incumbent, or a progressive Democrat whose voting record Toomey will gladly, and repeatedly, compare to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

If Sestak wins, it won’t help that Democratic leaders in Pennsylvania said a Specter loss in the primary would be "cataclysmic" come November. No doubt the Toomey campaign has already queued up that delicious sound byte.

Whether Specter or Sestak would be the better candidate against Toomey, it might be a toss-up.

Last week on a shuttle bus ride in Washington, Specter was overheard telling Hatch that he better watch out, because, "Toomey’s coming to get you next ... That Club for Growth is going to be coming for you next just like they did me."

With Toomey in the race, and no matter which Democrat wins the nomination, one thing is certain: Pennsylvanians will be forced to make a very deliberate choice about who goes to Washington with what kind of message and agenda.